Research notes

Today’s one of those days I wish I was holding more cash. Several alerts went off on companies I’d like to add, finally showing some discounts. I don’t know what to make of today’s news. Yes, a correction is due, but this isn’t it, so I’m calling bullshit. The hypocrisy in some of these articles is just sad. Instead of fearmongering, why don’t they adjust their target prices by 10–20%? What worries me more is a possible Bitcoin correction and its ripple effect on the stock market. Typically, money flows from one asset class to another, but lately, it feels like crypto and stocks are moving more and more in sync. Question for you, are you spending money on AI, if yes how much? FYI, I'm personally spending about 500€/year on AI subscriptions, that is excluding the copilot licenses the corporation I'm working for are providing additionally.

And we did so with a respectable 🟩+𝟮,𝟰𝟴% increase, the green streak continues. 🔴 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝗕𝗔𝗗 𝘰𝘧 𝘖𝘤𝘵𝘰𝘣𝘦𝘳. I'll start with the bad news, unfortunately this result is not inline with my expectations. On Friday we received horrible news about $LAZRQ , ruining the results of the month, as I expected an increase of 5% - 10%. I was waiting for the Q3 results, but the news that came out is so bad that I'll cut my losses next week. Basically the company is unable to meet their responsibilities when it comes to paying of their debt and although I was expecting a share dilution later this year to cover for this, this news comes earlier than I expected and in a worse way. Together with that it was communicated that the CFO will step down and that the agreements with Volvo have gone sour. The lidar of Luminar was the first and only lidar I've seen in person with the Volvo EX90 and ES90. I'm a strong believer in lidar technology, it still is a technology that is facing a lot of technical and regulatory difficulties when it comes to embedding it in cars for autonomous driving. The loss that I'm taking is about 2 months of my salary to put it in perspective, this drawdown caused a portfolio loss of 5% to 7%, by selling I'm protecting myself and avoid the probability of losing even more. The loss for your copy position is likely a bit smaller as my average share cost me $2,54. 🟢 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝗚𝗢𝗢𝗗 𝘰𝘧 𝘖𝘤𝘵𝘰𝘣𝘦𝘳. As I already mentioned in a previous post, during October the portfolio rebalanced itself where the smaller positions did great and our biggest position $NIO did less. So how is this good? NIO is doing great as a company, their production has been ramping up, the demand is currently exceeding their production capacity and there hasn't been any significant negative news for a while. I'm a bit skeptical about the company becoming profitable in 2025, but I'm sure confident it will if it keeps the momentum going in 2026. As always, if you have any questions, don't hesitate to ask! 𝘊𝘰𝘱𝘺 𝘛𝘳𝘢𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦 | 𝘊𝘢𝘱𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘵 𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬 | 𝘗𝘢𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘥𝘰𝘦𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘨𝘶𝘢𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘦 𝘧𝘶𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵𝘴.

I’ve just returned from a 3-day trip to Cyprus for eToro's Popular Investor (PI) Summit, and I'm left feeling inspired, amazed, motivated, and pleasantly exhausted. It was an incredible experience from start to finish. I had the opportunity to connect with 200 other Popular Investors, where we shared experiences, opinions, investment strategies, and a few drinks (perhaps one too many 😉). The agenda was packed with energizing presentations, workshops, and discussions that will leave a lasting impression. I was particularly astonished by the presentations on AI. The sheer volume of opportunities it's creating is staggering. We saw presentations by several PIs who had built applications on top of eToro's API using Base44, many with little to no coding experience. As someone with a background in software engineering, I can say the results were nothing short of impressive. I was also surprised to see a fellow Belgian ( @TimothyAssi ) presenting one of these apps and am excited for the opportunities these kinds of applications will bring. Another standout was the "Shark Tank"-style session where seven Popular Investors pitched their strategies to a jury of experts. I was struck by the diversity, all seven strategies were completely different. None were right or wrong, but all were achieving results that many institutional investors can only dream of, proving that skilled retail and Popular Investors are a powerful force for the future! Finally, I was deeply inspired by the @eToroTeam and eToro's CEO @YoniAssia . The positivity, passion, and excitement they radiated was contagious! It’s been a while since I’ve felt that kind of energy, this empowers me to learn more, push harder, and step beyond my comfort zone. Thank you, eToro, for hosting such a phenomenal event. I'm honored to be part of this community, excited for the future of the platform, and can't wait for next year's @popularinvestors Summit! A special thanks as well to all the fellow Popular Investors for making the experience so incredibly fun and insightful. @AleixRG @Tom1313 @Cheetah26 @LONGPROFIT4U @AndresChocron @Sergius95 @JFKinvestor @KTrader6868 @hjouinsse And anyone else i forgot to scan...

As I’d like to better understand my audience, I’m curious to hear what your expectations are for yearly results. 👉 Please vote for what you expect should be our target! I’m currently in the process of defining my long-term portfolio strategy. Specifically, I’m reflecting on how to improve consistency and reduce risk. Over the past five years, my portfolio achieved an average annualized return of +75%, with the negative results of the 2022 bear market. It would be great to keep that pace, but to make it sustainable, I need to take action and fine-tune my approach. There’s no single “right” strategy in investing. A strategy is personal, it evolves with your goals, your situation, your stage in life, and even your personality. For one person, “risk” means putting everything on red. For another, it might be buying a volatile growth stock or even holding a single ETF. That’s the beauty (and challenge) of defining your own strategy: deciding what level of volatility you can live with, and how to balance long-term conviction with short-term opportunities. With investing, it’s not only important to know when to enter a position, but also when to exit. A common mistake investors make is getting married to a stock and holding on too long and watching profits vanish. For my short-term positions, I aim to close trades within <1 year, using volume, trend, resistance, and volatility to determine my exit target at the moment of entry. Remember that the duration of a position matters when investing: with the same capital, two successful trades of 12% per year can already outperform many benchmarks. Profit isn’t just about being in the green, it’s about beating the market. If a position returns <15% yearly, it’s effectively a losing trade compared to a simple S&P 500 or world ETF. I believe that this mindset is the reason of my past success. The downside of this mindset is the lack of long-term positions, which should be the pillars of stability in my portfolio. For the future I aim for stocks with sustainable growth around 20% annually, ideally in sectors with strong fundamentals and compounding potential. While short-term trades can create bursts of profit and liquidity, long-term holdings offer the advantage of compound returns, lower trading costs, and tax efficiency. The key is finding the right balance between the two, using short-term trades to stay agile, and long-term investments to build lasting value. But of course, the more stability, the lower the returns. So I’m curious what would you consider a healthy yearly target for our portfolio? Vote below and share your thoughts, I’d love to hear your perspective. 𝘊𝘰𝘱𝘺 𝘛𝘳𝘢𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦 | 𝘊𝘢𝘱𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘵 𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬 | 𝘗𝘢𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘥𝘰𝘦𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘨𝘶𝘢𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘦 𝘧𝘶𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵𝘴. $SPX500 $SWDA.L

While my numbers might not look impressive at first glance, I'm feeling positive. Earnings will likely bring more volatility, but I expect us to carry our green streak into November. Why I'm optimistic? My overall portfolio has been stable, but that's because our smaller positions have rallied, masking a ~15% dip in our largest holding, $NIO . I'm still very bullish on NIO, and this internal rebalancing has set us up well for the coming months. My trades take time and my investments even longer, patience is key! Looking forward to next week as I'm excited to participate in eToro's Popular Investor Summit. I'm eager to learn from other investors and find new ideas to help me grow as an investor, trader and Popular Investor! Also going? Let me know!

It’s seems several trades reached their target prices, 5 different positions in $SMR $OUST $AEVA 4 of them got closed today upon market open with some nice profits. Now we wait to see if we can repeat the trades or if we keep climbing for the remainder of our positions. Both SMR and LiDAR are developing technologies, we haven’t seen the best of these yet, I’m bullish for the future. On a side note, we finally opened a small position in $HSAI , yet another LiDAR company I originally wanted to buy at $16 but because I didn’t wanted to enter at $16,05 I missed out, today I entered at a premium price with a short term vision. Out of all the companies, this one is close to become profitable, this one is affected by the China/USA trade war, so we might open a couple of additional trades until a deal is made. My quarterly goal stays the same: wait for TP’s to close some positions before the year end so we’re at 10-20% cash. With the equivalent of today’s profits I’ll buy myself an end of the year present, but I’ll use my savings account for that so we can compound the profits even further!

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Contrary to the blue Monday of yesterday, today it’s a deep red day and normally I like these. Days like these often offer the best opportunities, almost everything is on a discount. Normally, I’d be entering new positions, but today I’m holding back. As I mentioned before, I believe that the current market is a little bloated, I’ll wait for the next sale before jumping in. I’m glad we built that small cash position recently, if the market drops another 5–10% because of current geopolitical tensions, I plan to use it fully. My current green streak is 8 consecutive months, I plan to keep it that way. For now, I'll start my weekend early and we'll see next week what the world has to offer. My experience in life has taught me that risk creates opportunity and every financial success I’ve had came from taking risks. My stock portfolio is no different. Remember when you copy me, my strategy embraces volatility and larger swings. I do not recommend setting a stoploss, I'll do that on my end where I see fit. If you copy me, consider doing it over multiple weeks/months, days like these offer a great opportunity to increase your copy and spread out the risk. 𝘊𝘰𝘱𝘺 𝘛𝘳𝘢𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦 | 𝘊𝘢𝘱𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘵 𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬 | 𝘗𝘢𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘥𝘰𝘦𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘨𝘶𝘢𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘦 𝘧𝘶𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵𝘴.

On days like this, when the market feels like a blue Monday, I like to step back and review some charts. It helps me get a clearer perspective, without being influenced by emotions or daily volatility. Today, I looked at NIO, which has performed well over the past few months. I’m not trading NIO based on technical analysis, but my conviction in this company is driven by its long-term potential. Still, out of curiosity, I decided to take a closer look at the technical setup to see what the chart might be telling us. This chart covers roughly one year, and here are a few observations worth noting: - We’re currently testing a key resistance level around $7.63, which marks a one-year high. - Since June 10, trading volume has increased and remains elevated, which typically is a healthy sign that investor interest is strong. - The bullish momentum has started to cool off, which supports the idea that the stock is encountering resistance. - The RSI is hovering near overbought territory, but its not yet extremely overbought, but it shows the rally could be taking a breather. - The trendline remains intact, and with the resistance test underway, the next few days could be quite interesting to see whether NIO breaks through or consolidates. I like technical analysis, I like to believe they give some insights in the near future, but to make successful trades you can't ignore the fundamentals. For now lets see if next few market days are volatile as this chart is predicting and lets hope it brings us closer to 10$ and not 5$. 𝘊𝘰𝘱𝘺 𝘛𝘳𝘢𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦 | 𝘊𝘢𝘱𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘵 𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬 | 𝘗𝘢𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘥𝘰𝘦𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘨𝘶𝘢𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘦 𝘧𝘶𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵𝘴.

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Today at market open we experienced an automatic closure of $RDW.US & a position in $AEVA The position in $RDW.US closed because of a stop loss I configured yesterday, giving a +29% profit! As I mentioned before, this was a swing trade and not an investment, I still question the company's future. I'm keeping track of the stock price for future swings, but I don't expect to re-enter this anytime soon. For $AEVA on the other hand, 1 position got closed because of the Target Price, resulting in +25% profit. After our profit taking, the stock price dropped 10%, which is not yet sufficient for a reentry. I consider re-entering around 15.00$ for now! Enjoy your profits!