Research notes

On my way to work today, I was listening to a podcast where a listener asked a simple question: “Considering ETF's come with additional costs over stocks, is it better to buy an ETF, or buy the individual stocks inside it?” Simple question, but the answer isn't simple... An ETF gives you instant diversification. You don't have to decide which company will outperform, rebalance everything yourself, or spend hours following every earnings report and company update. You accept that some holdings will outperform and others won't, and you take the combined result of the basket. You take the good with the bad and for most ETF's you pay minimal extra cost. Costs vary per ETF, but are transparent and easy to find. (Taxation is also a topic to look into...) Buying individual stocks is different. You can allocate more capital to the companies you believe have the strongest potential, avoid businesses you don't like, and potentially outperform the ETF. But you also accept more company-specific risk and one large position moving against you can have a much bigger impact. However stock picking is more risky as you'll have to follow up on the companies, review their earning, keep track of their earnings and investments., ... In the end I think it comes down to what kind of investor you want to be, what you're risk tolerance is and how much time you're willing to spend on staying up to date. If you’re the person who still asks the question, my advice would be to stay with ETF's and maybe copy someone or use money that you'll not mis when you lose it, but expect to put time in it. How I'm approaching this: With an ETF, you're mainly choosing a market, sector or theme. With individual stocks, you're also relying on your ability to select the stronger companies within it. I'm actually applying both approaches in my own portfolio. Over time, I'm slowly building a more stable core consisting of multiple ETFs. My goal is to eventually have at least one-third of the portfolio spread across several ETFs, while keeping the remaining part available for individual companies where I see stronger opportunities. That should give the portfolio a broader foundation, while still leaving enough room for active stock selection and higher-conviction positions. So for me, the answer isn't really ETF or individual stocks. It's about finding the right balance between the two. Do you prefer ETFs, individual stocks, or a combination of both? 👇 $SXR8.DE $IEMA.L

Our portfolio has taken a serious hit, but the underlying businesses aren’t deteriorating at the same pace. $NIO is improving margins, $OUST is growing strongly, $HSAI remains profitable, and $XYZ has raised its outlook. The main pressure is macro: high bond yields, sticky inflation, expensive oil and higher-for-longer interest rates. That environment hits growth names especially hard and that's exactly where we're at. What I’m watching now is a peak in Treasury yields, a less hawkish Fed, lower oil prices and stronger Chinese consumer demand. I’m not abandoning the strategy because of a difficult few months. But this period is a good reminder that position sizing matters just as much as conviction. Right now, I still see this more as a hostile market environment than a portfolio full of broken companies. For copiers with the same long-term view, I’d rather avoid trying to guess the exact bottom. Holding makes sense if your conviction and risk tolerance haven’t changed, while anyone looking to increase exposure could consider spreading additions over the coming months instead of going all-in at once. That reduces timing risk if volatility continues before conditions improve. If you’re feeling the market pressure, don't forget it's about the long term, we've been in this downhill/idle trend as of last year, while the performance of our companies have been improving a lot. Once investor confidence returns we will...

The most difficult aspect of investing is in my opinion the emotional aspect of it, the last few weeks have been extremely frustrating, so I've been chewing over the last 365 days as a Popular Investor. In a nutshell I consider my portfolio performance disappointing, I’m not happy with it. But I need to be realistic and put things in perspective. The result is still comparable to, and possibly a bit better than, what many traditional bank funds are delivering. Another thing that assures me that my performance is not that horrible is that I see some of the elite pro investors on the platform with a similar or worse performance, these are people I look up to and have much more experience and time to analyze the market. So while my performance is below what I was hoping for, it is not something that should make me question everything. My long-term confidence in the companies I hold is still there. A weaker stretch like this can be frustrating, but it does not automatically change the bigger picture for me. I still see strong potential in the businesses and themes I’m invested in, from advanced mobility and next-generation energy to robotics. I never built this portfolio around a short-term view, and that part has not changed. A large part of the portfolio is in companies where execution risk is high. Names like $NIO, SMR, SLDP and AEVA could do very well if they scale successfully, but they can also disappoint for a long time if growth comes in slower than expected, margins remain weak, or funding gets tighter. There is also competition risk across several positions. PayPal, Klarna, eToro, Ouster, $HESAI and Block are all operating in crowded markets. Good products and a strong story are not enough on their own. These companies still need to defend market share, improve profitability and deal with regulation, pricing pressure and serious competition. Macro and geopolitical risk are also still there. Chinese exposure can offer upside, but it also brings uncertainty around regulation, sentiment and trade policy. And if rates stay higher for longer, growth-oriented names can continue to feel that pressure. On a more personal note, I’m also in the process of selling a rental property. I’ve grown tired of the responsibility that comes with it, and when I compare the return with the time, effort and mental load involved, an average yearly yield of around 7% simply feels less attractive to me than what I believe I can achieve over time through investing. Yes the risk cannot be compared and there’s the additional leverage of a cheap mortgage, but for me it's just... I'm still confident enough in my strategy to double down. So yes, the YTD result is not where I want it to be, but I’m still comfortable with the direction, I still believe in the companies I own, and I’m still willing to give the thesis time to play out. For all of you who gave me or your trust or are still here, thank you. If you have any comments, remarks or points of improvement, feel free to leave them in the comments. I appreciate your feedback. 𝘊𝘰𝘱𝘺 𝘛𝘳𝘢𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦 | 𝘊𝘢𝘱𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘵 𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬 | 𝘗𝘢𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘥𝘰𝘦𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘨𝘶𝘢𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘦 𝘧𝘶𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵𝘴.

After a very long weekend, thanks to the national holiday of Belgium, let me give a recap of last week... Last week was as expected volatile, but the overall picture wasn’t necessarily negative. US inflation came in better than feared, while $ASML and $TSM both reported strong results and confirmed that demand for AI chips and new production capacity remains high. Unfortunately semiconductor shares still fell. That may sound strange, but it’s becoming a trend so take note: strong results don’t always lead to a higher share price, when expectations are already extremely high, even good numbers may disappoint investors or trigger profit-taking. The biggest source of uncertainty came from Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Rising oil prices brought new inflation concerns, while markets were already nervous about highly valued technology shares. This week, some of those shares started to recover, showing how quickly market sentiment can change even when the companies themselves haven’t changed. My long-term view hasn’t changed. The results from ASML and TSMC support the idea that AI spending remains strong. Short-term price movements will continue to be influenced by fear, expectations and world events. The market is not always a logical place, it's an emotional place and we need to look beyond those emotions and look for the long term.

Next week there are quite a few events scheduled that might cause some volatile days. For those with a weak heart I'd recommend to read the news and not look at your portfolio during the week. So a bunch of economic reports are coming up that could shape expectations as earnings season starts to pick up. In my view, $ASML and $TSM results are going to be especially interesting to watch. Together, they can give a pretty good read on semiconductor demand, AI infrastructure spending, and whether chipmakers are still willing to invest heavily in new capacity. So their results and guidance could potentially influence sentiment across many growth and AI-related names. At the same time, tensions between the US and Iran have flared up again. Anything happening around the Strait of Hormuz could move oil prices quickly, which in turn could affect inflation expectations and interest-rate outlooks. Here’s what I’ll be keeping an eye on: Tuesday • US CPI inflation • Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony before Congress • China trade data • Early US bank earnings Wednesday • US PPI inflation • Kevin Warsh’s second day of testimony • Empire State Manufacturing Survey • Bank of Canada interest-rate decision • China Q2 GDP • China industrial production • China retail sales • ASML earnings Thursday • US retail sales • Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey • US pending home sales • Netflix earnings • Taiwan Semiconductor earnings Friday • US industrial production • Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment Throughout the week • Oil prices and anything related to Iran and the Strait of Hormuz • ECB and Bank of England speakers • Bank earnings setting the tone for the broader earnings season Not every report is going to move the market, but with inflation data, central bank commentary, big semiconductor earnings, and geopolitical risks all in play, there’s definitely room for some volatility. The key question for me is whether any of this actually changes the long-term outlook for the companies I follow. I don’t expect it to change, but positive news could shorten the period for my plays. Copy Trading is not investment advice | Capital at risk | Past performance does not guarantee future results

1️⃣ 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘤𝘶𝘳𝘳𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘈𝘐 🖥️ I think we’re still very early in the AI cycle. Most companies are currently focused on the first practical layer: using AI to write code, summarize information, create content, support customers, improve internal processes or connect agents to digital tools like email, chat, calendars, documents and dashboards. Working in software development myself, I can assure you that’s already a big shift. But to me, it still feels like the first chapter. The current AI wave is mostly about improving digital work. It helps people move faster, build faster and automate tasks that used to take a lot of manual effort. Coding agents and workflow agents are a good example of this, they’re already useful, but still not fully integrated in our day to day. On top of that, we’re talking about a digital world and that’s why I see this as the first layer. I see it as a technology that is moving very quickly from promise to practical use, but the bigger impact is still ahead of us. 2️⃣ 𝘞𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘐 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘬 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘭𝘦𝘷𝘢𝘯𝘵? 🤖 The next major step, in my opinion, is AI moving from the digital world into the physical world. The information age turned human knowledge into machine-readable infrastructure. Digital agents can control digital things. They can work with software, messages, files, systems and workflows. But once AI connects to cameras, sensors, LiDAR, cars, drones, machines, factories and eventually humanoids, the impact becomes much bigger. At that point, AI is no longer just helping us think, write or automate. It starts to see, interpret and act in the real world. That’s why I’m looking beyond chatbots and software assistants. I think the future of AI will also be built through semiconductors, sensors, vision systems, robotics, automation, edge computing, energy infrastructure and industrial applications. Humanoids are one of the areas I’m especially excited about. They may still be early, and there will be a lot of hype, but the direction makes sense to me. The world is built for humans, so machines that can operate in human environments could become very valuable over time. The information age turned human knowledge into machine-readable infrastructure, AI is turning that infrastructure into machine-executable intelligence. 3️⃣ 𝘏𝘰𝘸 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘐 𝘪𝘯𝘤𝘰𝘳𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘷𝘪𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘪𝘯 𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘧𝘰𝘭𝘪𝘰? 🏆 There will be companies with great presentations but weak businesses, there will be overvalued stocks, there will be moments where the market gets too excited, and there will be corrections when expectations move faster than reality. So the way I want to incorporate this vision in our portfolio is by looking for companies that can benefit from this long-term shift. That means I’ll keep watching areas like chips, semiconductor equipment, data infrastructure, sensors, LiDAR, robotics, automation, energy and companies that can apply AI in the physical economy. This defines a clear segment I’ll be following, it marks my playing field where I can trade high risk assets and where time is our joker in case a trade goes south. I know this will not be a smooth ride, replacing humans with humanoids will receive a lot of pushback and requires lots of politics, but it’s only a matter of time. As always, I’ll try to balance conviction with risk management. The vision can be strong, but the portfolio still needs discipline. 𝘊𝘰𝘱𝘺 𝘛𝘳𝘢𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦 | 𝘊𝘢𝘱𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘵 𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬 | 𝘗𝘢𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘥𝘰𝘦𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘨𝘶𝘢𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘦 𝘧𝘶𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵𝘴.

After the rough day last Friday, today the negative trend continues. I was already thinking 'Let's hope it doesn't continue next week...', unfortunately it seems that it will. Anyway, I think we're going on a rollercoaster, but this doesn't change the performance of the stocks we're holding. Think about the longterm, not the next few weeks. If you have some spare cash, make use of this moment and DCA week by week. If you don't have spare cash, sit tight and 𝘦𝘯𝘫𝘰𝘺 the ride.

This week I rotated some money in my portfolio looking for quick wins. The trades made sense, but timing was off. It's a reminder to focus on the long-term and not let short-term fluctuations sway our strategy. Growth and tech had a rough session, with sentiment shifting again as investors reacted to stronger jobs data, renewed rate concerns, and pressure in semiconductors. For a portfolio like mine, that hurts more visibly. Do I like seeing red after rotating capital? Of course not. But I’d rather be honest about it than pretend every decision lands perfectly. Fortunately my strategy isn’t built around calling every daily move correctly. It’s built around owning companies and sectors where I still see long-term potential, while managing risk and adjusting when the facts change. And even my short term trades are in sectors I see growing. Today wasn’t comfortable. Today wasn’t perfectly timed. The hard part is staying rational when the market makes you feel stupid for being early. Anyhow, I've increased our position in $SMR and $HSAI for the long term, some short term positions in $OUST and $AEVA and added a new company $SLDP. Have a nice weekend and let's be happy we still can enjoy a beer. 🍻 Copy Trading is not investment advice | Capital at risk | Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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As mentioned last week, I’m working on an application based on eToro’s public API. The goal is to give more transparency around my portfolio and to present the data in a way that helps me make better decisions. One of the pages I’ve created is called Risk Insights. It visualizes several risk factors I’m trying to keep track of, and over time it should help me manage risk more actively. It also gives you a clearer view of what you’re actually copying when you copy my portfolio. Attached is a preview of what to expect. At the time of writing, the portfolio has a risk score of 6/10, with a daily drawdown of -7.78% and a weekly drawdown of -11.56%. That’s not comfortable, but the score alone doesn’t tell the full story. The profile volatility charts are especially interesting to me. I tried to visualize where eToro’s risk score may be coming from. I don’t know if it’s fully accurate, but the data seems to correlate quite well and gives me a useful visual overview of how my actions over the last 365 days have affected the portfolio. The Daily performance swings chart is probably one of the most useful ones if you want to understand what the risk score really means. Every portfolio moves up and down. The bigger the daily swings, the higher the risk. This chart shows that clearly. One day the portfolio can move up 5%, the next day it can move down 5%. If I want to reduce my risk score, I need to reduce the size and frequency of those fluctuations. But risk score doesn’t explain everything, especially when investing with a long-term view. That’s why I also added the pie charts. They show other risk factors that matter: portfolio concentration, asset allocation, currency exposure, geographic exposure, and sector exposure. I'm excited to launch my application, it will allow me to measure the performance of my strategy, guide me in my decision making and do it all transparently and open for you to see. Risk by choice, not by accident. Copy Trading is not investment advice | Capital at risk | Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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